☀️The 06:00 callThe best spot first, then all ten Hour by hour1 to 5 kiwis for every daylight hour 📈Pro chartFour days, four wave models, one chart 🗺️Coast mapSwell and wind from Peniche to Caparica
Peniche + Ericeira
SupertubosCoxosRibeira d'IlhasFoz do Lizandro
Sintra + Cascais
Praia GrandeGuinchoSão PedroCarcavelos
South of the Tagus
Costa da CaparicaFonte da Telha
Accuracy FAQ Join on Telegram

Good morning, Lisbon.
Here's where to surf today.

Every morning at 06:00, Kiwi rates ten spots from Peniche to Fonte da Telha, hour by hour, on a forecast corrected against real buoys. One Telegram message, no app to install.

Join on Telegram See a real forecast
Best todayCoxos 9/10
Swell offshore, Thu 29 Oct
Hour by hour, Caparica
How's @Carcavelos at 5pm?
@ Spot

Ten spots, one message at 06:00

SupertubosCoxosRibeira d'IlhasFoz do LizandroPraia GrandeGuinchoSão PedroCarcavelosCosta da CaparicaFonte da Telha

“A raw forecast is a guess about the sea.

Ours is corrected by our own model, trained on Portuguese buoys, and checked against them every morning.”

KiwiForecaster, KiwiSurf

Meet Kiwi,
your 06:00 surf call.

The whole coast in one message

At 06:00 Kiwi posts the best spot first, then all ten: best window, size in metres and feet, period, swell direction, wind, tide, and one plain line on who it's for.

KiwiSurf · LisbonTelegram channel · daily at 06:00
Thu 29 Oct

🌊 Lisbon surf · Thu 29 Oct

🏆 Ericeira Coxos Best today
Rating9/10
Window08-10
Size2.0-2.8 m
Windoffshore E 10

Then the rest of the coast:

Costa da Caparica 9Fonte da Telha 8Ribeira d'Ilhas 8Guincho 4Carcavelos 3Supertubos 1
Kiwi says
Go 08-10, clean well overhead, offshore E (experts).
Swell
12 s from NNW (326°), tide low falling
Light
07:00 to 17:40

Built from our real forecast for Thursday 29 October 2026 (19:27 run), shortened. Forecasts refresh during the day.

Hour by hour, 1 to 5 kiwis

All ten spots on one grid. Every daylight hour gets 1 to 5 kiwis, and a frame marks each spot's best window, so you can see the tide turn before you drive.

KiwiSurf hour-by-hour grid for ten Lisbon spots on 29 October

Ask in plain words

“How's Carcavelos at 5pm?” Kiwi answers from the same forecast data, in English or Portuguese. Add it to your crew's group chat and say “kiwi” for a roll call.

How's Carcavelos at 5pm?
Kiwi1 kiwi at 17:00: small and fading, its best was 07-11. Want waves this afternoon? Costa da Caparica is 9/10 from 13 to 17.
Caparica it is 🤙

Where Kiwi posts

Telegram daily at 06:00WhatsApp later

Go deeper when
the swell turns serious.

Four days, four wave models, one chart

The pro view lays out swell offshore with the spread of four wave models, surf at the spot, period and direction, wind and gusts, and the tide, hour by hour for four days.

4 daysHour by hourfor every spot
4 modelsWave forecastscorrected on the buoys
10 spotsOwn rules eachswell window, wind, tide
KiwiSurf pro chart for Ericeira Coxos: swell, surf, period, wind and tide over four days

Pick your spots. Skip the rest.

Three taps to start: your level and your area. Subscribe or stop per spot, and on quiet days Kiwi stays quiet: you hear from it only when one of your spots reaches 3 kiwis.

Your spots● 2 watching

Coxos · Ribeira d'Ilhas

Which spots should Kiwi watch for you?

The whole coast on one map

Swell and wind over the sea, with every spot's rating on the coastline, from Peniche down to Fonte da Telha. Ask for any hour of the day.

KiwiSurf swell and wind map of the Lisbon coast at 09:00
Checked against Instituto Hidrográfico buoys

“On 30 days the model never trained on, Kiwi's wave heights came out 8% closer to the buoys than raw Open-Meteo.

Wind speed came out 16% closer.”

Verification runSame-day forecast, 29 Sep to 28 Oct 2026

A forecast that
keeps score.

Every forecast checked against the buoys

Every morning at 09:30 Kiwi scores the day before against two Instituto Hidrográfico buoys and three airport weather stations, and keeps a rolling 7, 30 and 60-day record.

Verification29 Sep to 28 Oct 2026 · days the model never trained on
Wave height error0.174 → 0.160 m8% better
Wind speed error4.97 → 4.17 km/h16% better
Wave period error2.70 → 0.77 s72% better
Days scored30same-day forecast
TruthMeasuresRaw Open-MeteoKiwiSurfChange

Mean absolute error. Not every week is a win: during the big swells of the last 7 days our wave heights were 6% worse than raw, and we show that too. Most of the period gain comes from showing the peak period instead of the mean. No buoy sits on a beach: spots are checked against coastal buoys 27 to 110 km away.

Learns from your 👍 and 👎

Surfed today? Reply with the spot and a thumb. One vote per spot per day. After 50 votes Kiwi re-fits how much wind, period, direction and tide count, and a human approves before anything changes.

How a spot's rating is weighed today
Wind45%
Period25%
Direction15%
Tide15%
Coxos 👍Guincho 👎re-fit at 50 votes

Retrains every Sunday, keeps the winner

A challenger model trains on the newest buoy data each week. It goes live only if it is at least 2% better overall and never more than 5% worse at any buoy.

Kiwi's log › Retrain, 29 Oct
Challenger beat the live model on a 30-day test: wave error 0.167 → 0.161 m
Promoted, then the 1 to 10 scale was recalibrated on the new model
Next
ASunday 04:30 retrain on the newest week of buoy data

Ten spots, from Peniche
to Fonte da Telha

Peniche

Supertubos

Heavy, hollow beach-break barrels. Wakes up on west swells from 11 seconds, offshore in a north-north-east wind.

Level
Advanced, heavy barrels
Tide
Mid
Watch for
Powerful shorebreak, closeouts
Ericeira

Coxos

A shallow right-hand reef for experts only. Needs a north-west swell of 12 seconds or more and an east-south-east wind.

Level
Advanced only
Tide
Low to mid
Watch for
Shallow reef, strong locals
Ericeira

Ribeira d'Ilhas

Long rights over reef in front of the cliffs. Best on a north-west to west swell from 11 seconds, offshore in an east wind.

Level
Intermediate and up
Tide
Mid to high
Watch for
Reef, crowd on good days
Ericeira

Foz do Lizandro

A beach break at the river mouth, for every level. Works on a west to north-west swell from 9 seconds with an east wind.

Level
All levels
Tide
Low to mid
Watch for
River currents, shifting sandbanks
Sintra

Praia Grande

A long open beach under the Sintra hills. Works on a west to north-west swell from 9 seconds, offshore in an east wind.

Level
All levels
Tide
Low to mid
Watch for
Rips, shorebreak at high tide
Cascais

Guincho

Wide open to the Atlantic and to the wind. Clean on an east wind and a west to north-west swell from 9 seconds.

Level
Intermediate and up
Tide
Mid
Watch for
Strong rips, summer north wind
Estoril

São Pedro do Estoril

A reef on the Cascais line that needs a real west to south-west swell, 11 seconds or more, with a north-north-east wind.

Level
Intermediate and up
Tide
Mid to high
Watch for
Shallow reef at low tide
Cascais line

Carcavelos

Lisbon's city beach by the fort. Comes alive on a west to south-west swell from 10 seconds and a north-north-east wind.

Level
All levels
Tide
Low to mid
Watch for
Crowds, rips near the fort
Caparica

Costa da Caparica

Peaks between the groynes south of the river. Works on a west to north-west swell from 9 seconds, offshore in an east-north-east wind.

Level
All levels
Tide
Mid to high
Watch for
Rips along the groynes
Caparica

Fonte da Telha

Quieter peaks under the fossil cliffs. Works on a west to north-west swell from 9 seconds and an east-north-east wind.

Level
All levels
Tide
Mid
Watch for
Rips, few lifeguards off season

Our own model, trained on real buoys.8% more accurate waves. 16% more accurate wind.

Proprietary correction on four wave models, measured against raw Open-Meteo on 30 days it never trained on.

Join on TelegramSee the proof

How Kiwi makes the call

4 modelsOpen-Meteo × IH buoys

Four wave models, corrected on buoys

Open-Meteo's four wave models, bias-corrected by a model trained on past forecasts against Instituto Hidrográfico buoys, most recently up to 28 September 2026.
10 spotsOwn rules each

Rules for every spot

Each spot has its own swell window, offshore wind, ideal size and tide from public surf guides, then gets a rating from 1 to 10.
09:30Every morning

Scored every morning

Yesterday's forecast against the buoys and airport stations, every day, with the record kept for 7, 30 and 60 days.
What is KiwiSurf?

A daily surf forecast for Lisbon. Every morning at 06:00 Kiwi sends one Telegram message that rates ten spots from Peniche to Fonte da Telha and tells you where and when to go.

Which spots does it cover?

Peniche Supertubos, Ericeira Coxos, Ribeira d'Ilhas, Foz do Lizandro, Praia Grande (Sintra), Guincho, São Pedro do Estoril, Carcavelos, Costa da Caparica and Fonte da Telha.

When does the forecast arrive?

Every day at 06:00 Lisbon time. Each message ends with the best spot for each of the next three days.

How does the 1 to 5 kiwi rating work?

Each spot gets a score from 1 to 10 for size, wind, period, swell direction and tide, calibrated on the last year of Lisbon conditions. In the graphics that score becomes 1 to 5 kiwis: 1 kiwi is poor, 5 kiwis is firing.

How accurate is it?

On 30 days the model never trained on (29 September to 28 October 2026), the same-day wave height error fell from 0.174 m to 0.160 m (8%) and the wind speed error from 4.97 to 4.17 km/h (16%), compared with raw Open-Meteo. Not every week is better: in the last 7 days, with big October swells, waves were 6% worse.

Can I choose my spots?

Yes. Subscribe or stop per spot in the bot, set your level, and ask for an alert when a spot reaches a number of kiwis. On quiet days Kiwi only messages you when one of your spots has 3 kiwis or more.

Do I need to install an app?

No. Kiwi lives in Telegram. WhatsApp comes later.

Does it speak Portuguese?

Yes. Messages and answers come in English or Portuguese (pt-PT).

Where does the data come from?

Open-Meteo wave and weather models (CC BY 4.0), Instituto Hidrográfico buoys via Copernicus Marine, airport weather reports (METAR), and OpenStreetMap for the coastline. Surf at your own risk.

Get tomorrow's 06:00 call